How can we tell if we"tipped" in the Malcolm Gladwell sense of the word?

Have you read Malcolm Gladwell's book, the Tipping Point?  If not, see the end of this email for a brief summary from Amazon.

I have reason to believe but not sure that www.SCOTTEVEST.com may have "tipped".  Ever since 12/26/09 to date, we have been consistently trending on average up 170% up in total transactions and products sold, which is a factor of almost x3 as much products as we sold in the same time last year.  There have been only 2 days in this period where our sales have been almost the same compared to the prior year -although on those 2 days we were up by 12% and 34%.   Compare this to a ONLY ~40% rise in all critical metrics from 11/1-12/25 to the prior year.  By further comparison, sales and other metrics in Jan 09 vs. 08 were up by about only 17%, which under the economic circumstances was very good.

There are a number of factors we believe MAY be contributing to this sudden surge, but not any single factor that can be easily identified.

So the question I have, and I don't expect any clear answers, is have we really "Tipped" in the Malcolm Gladwell sense of the word.  If so, we need to order at least x3 as much inventory NOW to have enough for the upcoming Fall and holiday selling period.    Is 40 consistent days of data enough to make this decision?

Again, I don't expect any real answers, but just throwing this out there to see if anyone has any ideas on how to test this theory.  We are very happy with this success, but slightly confused.

From: http://www.amazon.com/Tipping-Point-Little-Things-Difference/dp/0316346624

The premise of this facile piece of pop sociology has built-in appeal: little changes can have big effects; when small numbers of people start behaving differently, that behavior can ripple outward until a critical mass or "tipping point" is reached, changing the world. Gladwell's thesis that ideas, products, messages and behaviors "spread just like viruses do" remains a metaphor as he follows the growth of "word-of-mouth epidemics" triggered with the help of three pivotal types. These are Connectors, sociable personalities who bring people together; Mavens, who like to pass along knowledge; and Salesmen, adept at persuading the unenlightened. (Paul Revere, for example, was a Maven and a Connector). Gladwell's applications of his "tipping point" concept to current phenomena--such as the drop in violent crime in New York, the rebirth of Hush Puppies suede shoes as a suburban mall favorite, teenage suicide patterns and the efficiency of small work units--may arouse controversy. For example, many parents may be alarmed at his advice on drugs: since teenagers' experimentation with drugs, including cocaine, seldom leads to hardcore use, he contends, "We have to stop fighting this kind of experimentation. We have to accept it and even embrace it." While it offers a smorgasbord of intriguing snippets summarizing research on topics such as conversational patterns, infants' crib talk, judging other people's character, cheating habits in schoolchildren, memory sharing among families or couples, and the dehumanizing effects of prisons, this volume betrays its roots as a series of articles for the New Yorker, where Gladwell is a staff writer: his trendy material feels bloated and insubstantial in book form. Agent, Tina Bennett of Janklow & Nesbit. Major ad/promo. (Mar.)

Scott Jordan, CEO
SeV/SCOTTEVEST: the best and most innovative travel clothing on the planet: For the Trip of Your Life!
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